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A Microscopic Approach to Epidemic Models through Stochastic Incidence Cumulative Case Curves

Quantitative Biology Colloquium

A Microscopic Approach to Epidemic Models through Stochastic Incidence Cumulative Case Curves
Series: Quantitative Biology Colloquium
Location: ONLINE
Presenter: Bill Fries, Program in Applied Mathematics, University of Arizona

The stochastic SIR epidemic models is based on a continuous time Markov process. We show how to construct a Markov chain for the cumulative cases. The approach allow us to write explicit solutions suitable for small populations and an asymptotic analysis for larger populations. The resulting functional central limit theorem leads to suitable procedures for statistical inference and approximate the distribution of several important epidemiological properties. We will finish with numerical simulations that display the difference in this approach to using time as the independent parameter and see explore perturbations of the network.

Zoom:   https://arizona.zoom.us/j/96503157705         
Password: “arizona” (all lower case)