Optimizing the Quarantine Risk Threshold
In this talk, I will discuss how targeted quarantine and broad social distancing can be used interchangeably to achieve an epidemiological target. The optimal risk threshold for quarantine can be calculated to minimize the overall cost of social isolation (without having to assign a value to life). Implications for app-based contact tracing and general public health policy will be discussed.
As an application of this approach, Exposure Notification apps can be improved by calculating the conditional probabilities of infection and subsequent transmissions using available information. A weighted cost function is minimized to recommend socially optimal test dates and quarantine durations based on case-specific information.
Password: “arizona” (all lower case)