Data Assimilation for Estimating the Past and Future Ocean State: Reanalysis, State Estimation, and Forecasting.
Ocean models and observations are combined to produce estimates of the past and future ocean. I will discuss how these models and data are synthesized, highlighting issues faced in the ocean optimization problem. A case study in the Tropical Pacific Ocean is used to demonstrate the skill of modern ocean numerical models, and how the realism of represented physics determines which oceanic processes can
be considered deterministic as opposed to stochastic. The work
highlights the promise of extending weather forecast skill with
coupled ocean-atmosphere models.